National debt raises questions
By PAUL BERTON -- London Free Press

Originally published by March 2nd, 2000, by canoe.ca at http://www.canoe.ca/CNEWSPolitics0003/02_berton.html


Contrary to what Finance Minister Paul Martin might think, there seems to be a great deal of interest in the national debt.

Since my column on the federal budget this week, I have been asked repeatedly for more information.

Because talk of the debt in the budget speech was all but lost in the avalanche of tax cuts and program spending, perhaps I can attempt to make up for it.

Economics can often be more art than science, but I'll try to deal give not-too-complicated answers to admittedly simple questions.

How much is Canada's national debt anyway?

At the moment, it's $576.8 billion.

That sounds like a lot?

It is. It's costing us $42 billion a year in interest payments. That's money that could otherwise be spent on schools, hospitals or roads.

To whom do we owe the money?

Mostly Canadians, who hold Government of Canada savings bonds, Treasury bills or other similar financial vehicles. About 25 per cent of the debt is held by foreigners.

Is the debt coming down?

Depends who you ask. Martin claims it has been coming down $3 billion a year for the last two years and will continue that way.

Is that enough?

Probably not. Even Martin thinks it should come down more.

By how much?

He's not saying.

When will it be paid off?

At this rate, not for 200 years. In the United States, President Bill Clinton is talking about paying off the debt in 10 or 20 years.

How long have we had it?

Since the Second World War. In 1944, it was about $8 billion. In 1975, $19 billion. In 1981, $91 billion. In 1993, $458 billion.

Yikes. Should we be alarmed?

Probably. We could be vulnerable to unforeseen changes in the international economy. Interest rates on the debt could skyrocket beyond our control. Our children and grandchildren could be caught between a rock and a hard place.

Then why isn't the government paying it down more quickly?

Lack of political will. Most voters want tax cuts and program spending instead. But Martin justifies the relative inaction by pointing to the more important ratio of debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product).

What's the debt-to-GDP ratio?

That's the amount of the federal debt compared to the size of the Canadian economy. Most economists say it is a much better indicator of our debt problem.

Is that coming down?

Yes. It is heading from a postwar high of 71 per cent in 1995 to 55 per cent by 2001 to 50 per cent by 2004.

What does that mean?

Think of it this way. The mortgage on your house might have been 40 per cent of your income when you bought it and were starting out in a career. It might have been tough to make the payments. Today, if your income has grown, it's a smaller portion of your income and therefore easier to handle.

Is Canada's economy growing?

At the moment, absolutely. Even though we'll face inevitable recessions, all but the most apocalyptic forecasters agree it will continue to grow in the long term. Some economists believe if the debt is simply stabilized, we'll grow our way out of the problem.

What would be a good ratio?

Some say it should be as low as 25 per cent.

What about others?

They say that could be too low, especially if the ratio drops too quickly. Interest rates on bonds would plummet and that could be disruptive.

Where can I find out more?

The federal finance ministry is releasing more detailed information about the debt at the end of this month.



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